NIRS Releases Two New Reports on Social Security

February 14, 2025

FYI Week of February 14, 2025

The National Institute on Retirement Security (NIRS) has released two new research reports on Social Security (SS), examining Americans’ current views regarding the specifics of reform, as well as providing a summary of more than 40 years of public opinion polling on the program, now approaching its 90^th anniversary. The reports’ findings should be very helpful as Congress and the nation confront Social Security’s funding challenges as well as attempt to design a viable “roadmap” for its future.

“Social Security at 90: A Bipartisan Roadmap for the Program’s Future.”

This public opinion research initiative was produced by the National Academy of Social Insurance in coordination with what it refers to as its “core partners” in the effort, namely AARP, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and NIRS. Greenwald Research, a market research firm headquartered in Washington, D.C., partnered with the Academy in conducting this study, which is based on a survey conducted in October and November of 2024. The survey was fielded by the nonpartisan research organization NORC at the University of Chicago, which questioned 2,243 Americans ages 21 and over. [The National Academy of Social Insurance, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization made up of the nation’s leading experts on social insurance policy, practice, research, and innovation.]

This study explores Americans’ preferred approach to addressing Social Security’s long-term financing gap.

Specifically, according to the 2024 SS trustees report, Social Security will have sufficient funds to pay all scheduled benefits until 2035. If Congress does not act, the trustees project that revenues coming into the system from worker and employer contributions and from beneficiaries’ income taxes on benefits would cover just over 80 percent of scheduled benefits that year. All current and future beneficiaries would therefore see an across-the-board benefit reduction sufficient to cover the projected shortfall in 2035.

After first asking questions to learn participants’ overall views of SS, including its current or future role in their economic security, the survey then asked participants about their willingness to consider increasing or reducing future benefits, and their views on various policy options to do so. (For the first time, the new report says the survey also asked respondents about a third type of option – rerouting other government funds to pay for benefits.)

Ultimately, the survey explored respondents’ views on nine broad categories of policy changes (respondents were also given the option of not making a change in each category):

Two called for increasing future revenues: raising the cap on earnings subject to Social Security taxes and raising the Social Security contribution rate for all workers.
Three changes called for reducing benefits: increasing the age for receiving full retirement benefits, lowering Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and reducing benefits for those with higher amounts of non-Social Security incomes in retirement.
Five called for enhancing benefits in various ways.

The survey’s results showed that, first, virtually all respondents who are not currently receiving benefits (81 percent) — across income and education levels, political lines, and generations — stated that Social Security will be important or very important to their monthly income when they retire; just 4 percent said it would not be. In short, Social Security is the “cornerstone of Americans’ retirement security,” as the report puts it.

Nearly four generations of Americans—98 percent of the U.S. population alive today—have never lived without the Social Security program, and it has never missed a payment in over nine decades.

The survey also used a “trade-off analysis” approach for the first time — a market research technique that is described as often used to learn which combinations of product features (or policy changes) consumers prefer and are willing to pay for. This approach found that, compared with the status quo, 82 percent of respondents prefer a package of changes that increases revenues, pays for targeted benefit improvements, and eliminates the financing gap.

This package of reforms is preferred across political lines, generations, income, and education. It would include no increase in the retirement age, no across-the-board benefit bump for future beneficiaries, and no change to the current taxation of benefits. It would instead:

Eliminate the payroll tax cap for earnings above $400,000. The existing cap, currently at $176,100, would be preserved, while those making more than $400,000 per year, and their employers, would contribute to Social Security via payroll taxes on wages above that amount, but would not receive additional benefits. This policy option was the most popular of all policy options tested, the report says.
Gradually raise the payroll tax rate from 6.2 percent to 7.2 percent for both employers and employees. For example, a worker earning $50,000 per year would contribute an additional $42 per month.
Adjust the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to more accurately reflect inflation and the spending habits of older Americans.
Provide a caregiving credit for people who take time out of the workforce to care for children under six – a group of workers who receive significantly lower benefits than other workers under current law, the report finds.
Provide a bridge benefit for older workers with a history of physically demanding work to protect them from Social Security’s early retirement reduction.
Reduce benefits for beneficiaries whose retirement incomes, not including Social Security, are $60,000 or more per year, or for married couples, $120,000 or more per year.

Interestingly, certain proposed changes had a strong impact on the appeal – or lack thereof – of policy packages. For example, keeping Social Security’s full retirement age at 67 instead of further raising it strongly increased the appeal of a package. Also, not changing the tax cap strongly decreased a package’s appeal.

The new report describes itself as providing a “bipartisan roadmap” for SS reform. As such, it makes the point that although Social Security’s reputation of being the “third rail” of American politics has led to the widespread perception that “there is no way to move forward because any changes would elicit enormous backlash,” this new National Academy of Social Insurance survey finds the opposite. “At a time when the nation seems deeply divided about the appropriate size and role of government, it is notable that Americans are united across political, income, education, and generational lines when it comes to their views on Social Security—and their preferred path for the program’s future,” the new report underscores.

When it comes to the future of Social Security, “This survey finds not only strong bipartisan support for the program itself but also overwhelming agreement that lawmakers should act to close the system’s financing gap by raising revenues needed to keep it on strong footing for the long term. The message to Washington is clear: rather than see the gap closed by reducing benefits, Americans want to see Social Security secured through revenue increases, and they are willing to pay more to strengthen the program’s finances.”

Can this become the basis for true Social Security reform? Only time will tell.

“Social Security’s First 90 Years: A History of Bipartisan and Intergenerational Support”

As NIRS notes, in addition to its current financing challenges, Social Security faces “a perennial question from younger participants as to whether it will be there when they retire.” NIRS thinks it is worth asking whether this question is “simply a function of youth or whether younger workers have real concerns about the current design of the Social Security system.”

To address this question, NIRS reviewed decades of polling related to Social Security, including not just results related to confidence in Social Security, but also questions about the amount spent on the program and other topics. (NIRS analyzed data from 15 different surveys for a total of 50 different iterations of surveys covering the years 1978 – 2023.)

After reviewing this information, NIRS developed a number of key findings, as follows:

Confidence in Social Security increases with age. The results of this analysis indicate that being born one year later, i.e., being one year younger, is associated with less confidence in receiving Social Security benefits in the future.
Older generations express more confidence in Social Security than younger generations. When survey respondents are analyzed by generational cohorts, NIRS says the older generational cohorts consistently express more confidence than younger generations. “Moreover, generations’ confidence in Social Security increases over time as they age,” the NIRS report finds. As an example, NIRS says Baby Boomers expressed less confidence in the program when they were younger, but more confidence in the program as they aged.
Only a small number of surveys directly ask people if they like Social Security. However, the available polling data suggests that strong majorities hold favorable views of Social Security and believe it is an important government program, perhaps the most important government program.
Solid majorities of Americans believe more money should be spent on Social Security. This view holds across income, educational attainment, and political affiliation. In fact, “Republican respondents have moved decisively toward the view that too little is spent on Social Security in recent years,” NIRS observes.
There is a disconnect among workers of different ages about the expected retirement age. Younger workers tend to respond that they will retire before age 65, while older workers tend to respond that they will retire after age 65.

In conclusion, NIRS observes that trust fund exhaustion is more imminent today, and thus, it can feel more likely to some respondents. “However, a lack of confidence should not be mistaken for or construed as support for major changes to Social Security,” NIRS underscores. “The current Social Security program remains highly popular and that support is strong regardless of age, gender, income, or party affiliation,” NIRS points out.

Congress and the new presidential administration should therefore work together to restore confidence in the program, NIRS urges. These new NIRS reports should provide good information on which to base such efforts.

Thank you, NIRS!